In the election, we saw a big shift from Prescott and the Prescott area towards Democratic candidates, which played an important part in swinging some statewide elections, and led to one of the best performances by a democratic congressional candidate in the last 10 years. Much of this was fueled by a surge in early voting by registered Democrats, which was something many of you worked for going door-to-door, phone canvassing, writing postcards, organizing as precinct committee people, and working for the campaigns. This is the result of work of many people- inside and outside of Prescott Indivisible- most especially Dr. Brill and family, the Democratic party, and others. But I wanted to share the statistical evidence that our work paid off. As someone who spent a couple days canvassing in the heart of Prescott, it’s very gratifying to see the result of all of our work.
I have statistics for Early Voting that measures early ballots returned by party. This does not include the “late earlies,” or early ballots returned on election day, or actual election day votes. Out of *all* registered Democrats in the 6 precincts that cover Prescott, 61% returned early ballots in 2014 far short of the 68% of registered Republicans who did. That number increased to 74.4% of registered Democrats this year, a gain of over 13%. Turnout and early voting was up for Republicans, too, but they only gained to 73%. In the greater Tri-city area, Democrats increased their early voting returns from 57% to 69.6%, while Republicans increased as well- but only from 66% to 68.4%.
This early voting fueled a big vote swing in the total results in Prescott and the Prescott area- it did not come at the expense of election day voting (note, these following stats include final results, not just early votes). One precinct in the heart of Prescott ended up virtually tied in the Senate race between Sinema and McSally. Mostly, though, we produced more votes for Democrats and fewer votes for Republicans than in *2016*, a Presidential election year which generally produces much higher turnout. In Prescott, we actually saw 1.7% *more* votes than during 2016 (statewide we were around 90% of 2016). Gosar got 7.8% fewer total votes and 3.5% fewer early votes, Brill got 17% more total votes than Weisser in 2016, and 19.4% more early votes. Voting at the polling places was down in Prescott- 20% down. But Brill’s election day votes were only down 1.1%, while Gosar’s were down 30.5% from 2016.
In the total Greater Prescott area, Gosar got 8.5% fewer votes than 2016, while Brill got 14.3% more. That wasn’t true in the rest of the state- in Payson Gosar got 7.8% fewer votes, but Brill only got 3% more than 2016. Again, this is an unfair standard- nobody usually compares a midterm to a presidential year- we just have the luxury of an incredible performance which makes a more clear comparison than the 2014 comparison. In Kingman, Gosar lost 8% from 2016, but Brill lost 7.6%.
Now, we didn’t win that race (for context, no Democrat won a race in 2018 in a congressional district where Trump got more than 55% of the vote in 2016- he got 70% in CD4). But we did win in the Senate. In the greater Prescott area, McSally got 7.1% fewer votes than Trump, while Sinema got 13.6% *more* than Clinton. That’s a huge swing- for reference, in Coconino, McSally got 8.2% fewer votes than Trump, while Sinema got 5.7% more votes than Clinton.
We made a difference. You made a difference. And you can continue to make a difference. These gains were built off of thousands of individual conversations and interactions- whether organized through the campaigns, at work, online, with neighbors, with family, or others. Remember that all of your work matters- we likely would not have a Democrat in the Secretary of State position ( a very close race) without YOU!